What happens when a radically new idea confronts the status quo? A heretic is born.

Somewhere in the early 1980’s, an economist named Orley Ashenfelter developed a mathematical formula that could be used to predict the vintage quality of a wine-region. This formula took into account winter rainfall, growing season temperature and harvest rainfall. At the onset, Ashenfelter was ridiculed by the biggest names of wine-rating, including Wine Spectator and Robert Parker of The Wine Advocate. After all, the status quo had made quite the profit by judging and rating wines. If this mathematical process were true, what would happen to the lucrative wine tasting business?

For years, Ashenfelter predicted the quality of wine from various regions in France and the status quo called him a mad man. The first shift came in 1986, when Parker and others proclaimed this to be the year of years for French wine. But Orley disagreed. That is not what the numbers said, and he went on the offensive. The second shift came in 1989, when our nonconformist predicted this to be the best year of the century. He even backed it up with a monetary guarantee. The usual suspects charged his predictions as absurd. But in the end, as you have guessed, he was right.

Ashemfelter threatened the wine raters business, their very livelihoods, by demystifying the rating process. But what would have happened if Robert Parker would have licensed the formula exclusively, early in the game? Assuming Orley would have sold the rights (I know, it’s a big stretch,) The Wine Advocate could have dominated the world of wine buying advice for investors. Since the nature of the algorithm allowed it to predict the quality as the grapes were being harvested, Parker would have had a jump on the rating competition. This would have positioned Parker as the de facto expert on wines that had never been tasted. It would have also allowed for Parker to affirm his greatness in future tastings with the “just as we predicted, the 1989 is shaping up nicely.”

In your business or industry, how do you respond to the heretic that threatens your existence or legitimacy? Do you see the opportunity or the threat? I don’t believe that Orley saw his approach as a way to transform the industry. But neither did the experts. It is entirely possible that if just one expert had seen the opportunity of the calculation, the business landscape could have changed.